A Black Eye Month

A Black Eye Month

August found our practitioners getting a swift punch in the face as our Multiple Listing Service (MLS) was the subject of a ransomware attack that took the system down for a solid three weeks – still not fully
recovered and now working to restore decades of historical data – we will see clean data once we exit September.

According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 693 single-family homes left for sale at the close of August – 10 percent greater than this same period twelve months earlier and the first time this metric has been higher in the last 48 months on a year over year basis. Sellers delivered 270 new listings to the market during the period – 30 percent less than in 2022 - while buyers garnered control of another 294 new deals – 21 percent fewer than a year earlier. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 304 for the period – 16 percent fewer than the 361 homes sold last year – the reporting
period is a bit hollow due to the data event noted above so take these metrics with a grain of salt.

The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve aggressively trying to dampen demand by raising the cost of money, MSI has
continued to stabilize and in July the level stood at 2.3 – still indicative of a seller’s market as we roll into Autumn.

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower
numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 108 homes reported for sale as August concluded – 21 percent higher than
last year. This region experienced the addition of 24 new listings during the month while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 31 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 31 new
homeowners – essentially on par with a year earlier – allowing MSI to rise to 3.5.

Healdsburg witnessed 16 new listings arrive to the market last month – 23 percent more than a year ago. Buyers absorbed 18 homes in new deals while sellers closed out 19 transactions leaving this
submarket with 73 homes for presentation to buyers in September – which is 49 percent higher than where it was last year while revealing an MSI swinging back and forth, though tighter for this period at
3.8.

Petaluma’s Westside attracted 22 new sellers in August which helped available inventory rise to 42 homes for buyers to select from by months end. Home seekers grabbed 15 new deals in the period
while sellers closed out just 11 purchases exposing a jump in MSI to 3.8.

Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 40 available homes for buyers to consider inclusive of the 13 additional offerings brought forth in the period. Home shoppers placed 20 more dwellings into contract
while sellers completed 21 sales – 16 percent fewer than in 2022 – causing MSI to plummet to 1.9 for the month.

As we begin shifting from summering mode, Russian River property owners delivered just 19 new listings in August while buyers captured 19 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 17 more
transactions leaving 55 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in September while establishing a MSI ratcheting up to 3.2 for the period.

Aside from the data mix here, the pulse of the market indicates buyers are out much more than they were in July and August. Partly due to time of year as well as most feeling like the interest rate hikes are
off the table and we will be seeing more neutral behavior regarding the cost of money for the near term with prospects of more favorable interest rates next year at this time.