A Palpable Change Coming

A Palpable Change Coming

Yes, that is what we are hearing from both economists and colleagues when talking about the number of new calls coming in regarding clients looking to make a purchase as we roll into Autumn.

According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 892 single-family homes left for sale at the close of July – 38 percent greater than this same period a year earlier. Sellers delivered 332 new listings to the market during the month – 13 percent less than in 2023 and another all-time monthly low infusion of inventory - while buyers garnered control of another 390 new deals – seven percent greater than a year ago. In support of these metrics, completed sales stood at 382 for the period – 16 percent more than this same time last year while the median price for a Sonoma County home settled once again to $850,000.

The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve indicating a dovish position with a bias towards lowering rates we may expect signs of inflation finally being held in check while resulting in more favorable rates in our future. In July, the overall MSI for Sonoma County registered 2.3 – indicating sellers remain in control - which has remained the case since 2011.

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Getting down to the details within the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 135 homes reported for sale as July concluded – 23 percent higher than last year. This region experienced the addition of 27 new listings during the month – 27 percent less than twelve months earlier as well as another historical low. Buyers garnered accepted contracts on 31 more properties, seven fewer than in 2023. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 36 new homeowners allowing MSI to steady at 3.8 – a figure now hanging very near a neutral reading.

Healdsburg witnessed 13 new listings debuting in the market last month – 41 percent fewer than a year ago. Buyers absorbed 14 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 13 transactions leaving this submarket with 87 dwellings for presentation to buyers in August – 24 percent above year ago levels - culminating in an MSI reading of 6.7 – thereby swinging momentum more towards buyers in the marketplace where sellers have to be willing to meet buyers where they are at when it comes to deal terms. 

Petaluma’s Westside attracted 21 new sellers in July – another all-time low for the period - leaving available inventory at 60 homes for buyers to react to by month’s end. Home seekers grabbed 24 new deals in the period while sellers closed out another 27 purchases allowing MSI to tighten once more to 2.2 for the month.

Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 36 available homes for buyers to consider, which included the 15 new offerings from property owners in July. Home shoppers placed 21 more abodes into contract while sellers completed 25 sales, allowing MSI to steadily favor sellers with it resting once again at 1.4.

Even tighter than Sebastopol, the Windsor market saw available listings sink to 28, which included the 18 new listings that showed up during the month. Buyers captured 19 deals in July while sellers closed out 21 more transactions holding MSI at 1.3.

Will the coming months unfold like many are predicting in a manner that highlights pent up demands from buyers now looking to execute upon those desires? Could this be a storm of activity coming or just a seasonal weather front? We are going to find out over the next 90 days!