As Sellers Dwindle – Pressure Mounts

Homes wanted…everywhere. As unwavering demand holds a grip upon our housing markets there is little in the future to suggest otherwise, at least for now.
 
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 675 single-family homes left for sale as July concluded – 12 percent fewer than the 764 units that were available as our markets were well into their pandemic rhythm last year. Sellers delivered just 429 new listings to the market during the month while buyers gained control of another 595 new deals during the period – on pace with last year and only held back due to the lack of sellers participating in our markets. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 540 this last month – nine percent fewer than this same time a year earlier, again due to supply constraints.
 
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with vastly growing demands from buyers in our region along with extremely attractive interest rates driving our markets, the data shows MSI hovering at 1.3 as of last month – with forecasting for even tighter this following month. This display of liquidity and activity is among the highest in the seven Bay Area counties we track and, in some part, due to the native demands of households, unique to our region, who are still replacing the 6000 plus homes they lost in the Tubbs, Nuns, Kincade, Glass and Wallbridge Fire calamities.
 
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 96 homes reported for sale as July ended. This region experienced the addition of just 30 new listings during the period – 40 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 65 more properties. Sellers awarded keys to another 59 new homeowners – maintaining the trend from twelve months earlier – delivering a steady MSI reading of 1.6.
 
With prices amongst the highest within Sonoma County, Healdsburg witnessed 30 new listings arrive to the market last month while buyers absorbed 23 homes in new deals. Sellers closed out 29 transactions – like last year - leaving this submarket with 87 homes for presentation to buyers in August, along with an MSI of 3.0.
 
Red hot, Petaluma’s Westside remained under extreme pressure from buyers demands with only 21 homes remaining for sale by month’s end – that’s inclusive of the 21 new offerings brought forth during the period. Sellers found their way into 26 new contracts while buyers completed purchases on 28 additional dwellings - holding MSI in the troughs at 0.8.
 
With ever intensifying interest, Petaluma’s Eastside supply of inventory is still being measured in weeks not months - to be precise three weeks! July wrapped up with 20 available homes for buyers to consider - inclusive of the 32 additional offerings unveiled during the period. Home shoppers placed 36 more dwellings into contract while sellers also completed 29 transactions – no surprise as this market continues to capture interest due to is relative affordability in comparison to surrounding markets let alone the Bay Area. With less than a single month’s supply of homes being available – MSI at 0.7 – expect values to rise to encourage sellers into the market.
 
Constricted by the availability of new supply, Sebastopol sellers delivered just 15 new listings in July - falling severely short of demand as buyers captured another 28 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 21 more sales leaving 37 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in August while showcasing an MSI of 1.8.
 
The predominant factors to watch to identify a shift in trends would be supply growing appreciably faster than sales mounting coupled with a significant rise in interest rates. When this occurs, as a seller you will want to be out in front of the trend – get in touch and we can explain that in greater detail. 

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