Living in the heart of the action I can confidently attest to the metrics we are seeing below. What we were theorizing months ago has now become a reality with factual data points not just anecdotal gibberish.
As our markets work to return to normal operations, we are seeing amazing activity lead to noteworthy trend line moves. According to BAREIS MLS, June’s data points indicate that Sonoma County buyers successfully contracted to purchase 638 single-family homes – a volume not seen in over a decade and 48 percent higher than just a year earlier. Property owners delivered just 388 new listings to the market during the period – 28 percent fewer than the prior June – while the County saw a stunning, and trend affirming, 440 sales reach fruition by months end leaving 866 single-family homes available to carry over into July and clearly establishing one of the Bay Area’s highest absorption rates of 51 percent. This further affirms the housing market recovery – though that is truly an understatement at this point - as the volume of buyer activity has been catapulted into the stratosphere as buyers look to relocate to the greater wine country region rather than remain in the Bay Area’s major metro markets.
The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the total number of homes sold in a month by the total number of homes available for sale at the end of the same month. A high absorption rate – 20 percent and above – indicates that the supply of available homes will shrink rapidly, thereby increasing the odds that an owner will sell a property in a shorter period. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15 percent is indicative of a buyer’s market, meaning homes are selling more slowly.
Marin County’s marketplace is confirming as robust a path as well. June showcased just 183 new single-family offerings – 10 percent fewer than last year – with buyers quickly latching onto 294 newly consummated deals – 31 percent greater than in 2019, while also being a volume not seen in well over a decade. Sellers closed out 220 transactions during the period leaving the entire region with 355 homes available for sale – 27 percent less than last June. This continues a hot paced absorption rate of 62 percent and further suggests our residential markets did not crater, and in fact, have bounced back to the heightened activity levels of more familiar times and more so as we continue to feel the pressure of homeowners deurbanizing from major metro regions.
Similarly, Napa County’s markets are benefitting from the trends expressed above with just 128 new homes making their way to market during the period. Buyers jumped in to secure 175 ratified contracts while sellers completed 92 sales during the period leaving this region with 338 homes available to the marketplace as we open the doors to July. This stint of activity showcased a 27 percent absorption rate – though accelerating upwards, just not as quickly paced as Sonoma and Marin.
Being all too cognizant of the ongoing pandemic, we still must view the current market activity as real and significant as it equates to a greater demand for the region we live in. Countless people are looking to find their new place well outside of congested metropolitan markets where they can enjoy broader spaces, better air and cleaner living. It is time to lean on us to best guide you forward as you walk the path ahead.
