Days of Summer Turning into Fall

Days of Summer Turning into Fall 

With Autumn taking over and delivering a bevy of new activity, we are seeing buyers make their last big push of the year for acquiring their new dwellings. According to BAREIS MLS, with September behind us, the data points indicate that Sonoma County buyers successfully contracted to purchase 348 single-family homes – 15 percent more than the prior year. Property owners delivered 273 new offerings during the month – off 29 percent from a year earlier along with being another new historical low for this period – while buyers managed to complete purchases on 274 dwellings – 23 percent less than a year ago.

With October now upon us, buyers will be surveying the 728 available homes remaining in Sonoma County – six percent greater than in 2022. Home seekers will be making determinations on these
offerings, along with the debut of new ones, as to purchasing now, or not, and this will show up in a common market measure - the absorption rate. September left us with this metric reading at 38 percent
in Sonoma County indicating buyers have put last year’s perfect storm of challenges behind them and are still determined to acquire their new home.

The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the total number of homes sold in a month by the total number of homes available for sale at the end of the same month. A high absorption rate – 20 percent and above – indicates that the supply of available homes will shrink, thereby increasing the odds that an owner will sell a property in a shorter period. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15 percent is indicative of a buyer’s market, meaning homes are selling more slowly.

Marin property owners introduced 142 new single- family offerings last month – 37 percent less than a year earlier – with buyers absorbing 157 homes in consummated contracts. Sellers brought finality to another 145 transactions during the period – 17 percent fewer than in 2022 - leaving the entire region with 308 dwellings available for buyers to peruse this month – 10 percent lower than last year at this time along with being another new all-time low inventory mark for the period. Marin’s absorption rate stayed elevated in September at 47 percent - indicating that this market is gaining strength with regard to property values moving higher along with establishing an even more competitive environment for buyers.

Napa County’s markets are trailing activity levels of both those mentioned above. September witnessed the release of only 82 new offerings to the marketplace – 14 percent less than twelve months earlier –
leaving inventory levels in the shallows once more with 293 dwellings for hopeful homeowners to peruse in October – the first month in the last three years where year-over-year available listings were
greater. Buyers placed 88 new deals into escrow – 19 percent more than last year – while closed transactions tipped the scales at 64 during the month allowing the absorption rate to rest at 22 percent
– still indicating that this market is more in favor of sellers as well though nearing a balanced reading.

Buyers make decisions on acquiring their new homes when they find an abode that gives them a minimum of 70 percent of the things they want while also understanding that finding more than 90
percent of their wish list is an unachievable task. This is why it is imperative for sellers to deliver their homes to the market in the best condition possible, such that their offering falls into this delivery window and creates a win-win situation.