Don’t Pause, or You May Miss Out

As we look to emerge from the pandemic many have been trying to fulfill their desires for a vacation thereby distracting them from their goal of purchasing or selling a home. This sometimes equates to a quirky marketplace where sellers who are used to - as of late - receiving offers within hours if not weeks to trying to assemble patience in the process. For those buying, they see this and too often make the calculation that the market will give them extra time to digest their thoughts on what they have seen then comeback to a decision later, then in a matter of moments or hours what was once the subject of conversation is now gone - then the quest starts anew.
 
The Santa Rosa metro region is working to accommodate the demands of the greater Bay Area along with its’ own, and according to BAREIS MLS - with June behind us - the data points to a marketplace still absorbing homes at higher than typical seasonal level with only 255 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 26 percent less than this same time a year ago. Exacerbated buyer activity has claimed another 251 single-family homes during the past month – that is still 6 percent ahead of last year’s frenetic pace while hovering two units below the monthly all-time high in volume!
 
The entire municipality introduced 224 new listings to the market over the last month while the most recent period also found Sellers handing over keys on 235 completed sales – 43 percent ahead of last year - and we expect these metrics to continue to compress. With the lack of a credible supply of new inventory, the statistics will be artificially hampered due to a significant portion of unsatiated demand going unmet each month as more homes continue to be absorbed while fewer sellers enter the “open” market. This compression is affirmed by Santa Rosa recording its’ Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) hovering around 1.1 – this is very much attributed to the fundamental shift in population migration from the greater Bay Area along with the cost of money in our current economy coupled with a lack of property owners interested in leaving the area.
 
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
 
Within the city, Northeast Santa Rosa saw the introduction of 81 single-family homes in June – on par with a year earlier - with a significant number of these homes being offered for sale that are in the waning months of construction, thus making them hard to transact on due to their unfinished status. The supply of homes was met with enhanced demands during the period as there were only 106 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end – 32 percent fewer than last year. Buyers embarked on 95 newly initiated escrows – half of one percent less than last year due primarily to a lack of sellers in the marketplace. Sellers received closing checks on another 98 properties – 75 percent more than the prior June - culminating in an MSI of 1.1 and getting tighter.
 
Similarly, Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of available properties rest at 45 by the end of last month – 15 percent less than a year earlier. This submarket debuted just 42 new homes in June while buyers garnered accepted offers on 42 additional dwellings. This coveted corner of the city experienced 45 formal transfers in the period – the largest amount at any period over the preceding 3 years and held back primarily from having available inventory to sell as MSI registered a reading of 1.0.
 
Oakmont continues to follow through on sales activity built on top of the prior few months of momentum and looks to be getting in line with the balance of the Santa Rosa metro markets – meaning if you are a buyer then you better get your purchase done ahead of pressure that typically ensues when this type of demand activity kicks in. The active adult retirement community witnessed 27 new sellers debuting their offerings in June while buyers showed up in force putting 33 deals under contract – 94 percent ahead of last year. Sellers concluded 35 transactions during the month leaving this niche market with 49 available homes to open with in July along with MSI at 1.4 – indicative of heavier buyer demand continuing to show up in this market as well now.
 
Northwest Santa Rosa – still overwhelmed with demand activity - saw buyers swoop in to gain control of 60 more deals this month leaving just 40 available single-family homes to carry over into July. Sellers committed 54 additional new offerings to the markets while another 44 homes completed the closing process. This intense activity is holding the MSI under a one-month supply as it hovers at 0.9.
 
Southwest Santa Rosa buyers completed 13 more deals in June, leaving just 15 homes available for those seeking new dwellings this month. Sellers submitted 20 new listings into the public domain during the period while buyers pledged their paychecks towards 21 accepted contracts causing this submarkets MSI to steady at 1.2 – thereby confirming the heightened demands of the balance of the Santa Rosa region.
 
Essentially this all means that whatever you are doing you need to keep a focus on your goal, especially if that goal is acquiring your new home. Be ever ready, be over prepared and success will find you.

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