Market Activity Indicative of Summer Season

Market Activity Indicative of Summer Season

Coming off the typically very busy months of February through May the market cadence is leaning into a summer mode even more so than the new typical rhythm due to a bevy of distractions happening now and over the next four months: vacations, school year end, school year beginning, election trail misery, the Olympics and all the multi-week international soccer tournaments underway.

According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 827 single-family homes left for sale at the close of May – 39 percent greater than this same period a year earlier. Sellers delivered 386 new listings to the market during the month – 22 percent less than in 2023 and a another new all-time low for the month - while buyers garnered control of another 421 new deals – 16 percent greater than a year ago. In support of these metrics, completed sales stood at 341 for the period – five percent fewer than this same time last year while the median price for a Sonoma County home has risen once again to $875,000.

The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve indicating a neutral rating along with a bias towards lowering rates - though still tempering when that may occur – we may expect signs of inflation finally being held in-check. In May, the overall MSI for Sonoma County registered a reading of 2.4 – indicating sellers remain in control - which has been the case for the last 13 years.

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 130 homes reported for sale as May concluded – 19 percent higher than last year. This region experienced the addition of 37 new listings during the month – 43 percent less than twelve months earlier as well as another historical low. Buyers garnered accepted contracts on 33 more properties, just one more than in 2023. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 34 new homeowners causing MSI to expand upwards to 3.8 – a figure approaching a balanced reading.

Healdsburg witnessed 15 new listings arrive to the market last month – 42 percent fewer than a year ago. Buyers absorbed 19 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 19 transactions leaving this submarket with 81 dwellings for presentation to buyers in June – 27 percent above year ago levels - culminating in an MSI reading of 4.3 – thereby swinging momentum into a neutral more balanced marketplace where sellers have to be willing to meet buyers where they are at when it comes to deal terms. 

Petaluma’s Westside attracted 19 new sellers in May – another all-time low for the period - leaving available inventory at 51 homes for buyers to react to by month’s end. Home seekers grabbed 20 new deals in the period while sellers closed out another 17 purchases allowing MSI to rise modestly to 3.0 for the month.

Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 46 available homes for buyers to consider, which included the 24 new offerings from property owners in May. Home shoppers placed 29 more abodes into contract while sellers completed 29 sales, allowing MSI to collapse to 1.6.

The Windsor market saw available listings rise to 21 due to 21 new sellers showing up during the month. Buyers captured 26 deals in May while sellers closed out 18 more transactions allowing MSI to sink further to 1.2.

We live in amazing times and are finding out over the last few years - since coming out of the Pandemic - that our culture along with others around the globe are placing greater importance on family and travel experiences than ever before therefore taking away from the established activity patterns our country has exhibited over the last 100 years, with Summer being the loser while Spring and Fall the beneficiaries’ when it comes to serious buyers committing to purchasing their new homes.