Market Indicators Showcase More in 2025
As we enter peak holiday distraction levels, we are evaluating trends lines and finding that they point to a market with expectations of both more buyer demands as well as more seller participation in 2025 – which should mean that the flat sales volume levels experienced over the prior 24 months should see an upward turn as next year unfolds.
According to BARIES MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 744 single-family homes left for sale at the close of November – 18% greater than this same period a year earlier. Sellers delivered 189 new listings to the market during the month – 9% less than in 2023 and a another new all-time low - while buyers garnered control of another 263 new deals – 12% more than a year ago. In support of these metrics, completed sales stood at 282 for the period – 20% greater than the 236 sold at this same time last year.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve having now reduced interest rates we are witnessing a market restabilizing at a seller favorable reading of 2.6 – affirming the most recent trends that our markets will not slip towards a balanced one and will likely remain as it has since 2011, a sellers’ market, with a greater percentage chance of 2025 being a year that sees prices edge upwards.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Still riding the cusp of a balanced market reading, the tony town of Sonoma, which submarket includes properties throughout Kenwood and Glen Ellen, reported 112 homes for sale as November concluded – 17% higher than last year. This region experienced the addition of just 13 new listings during the month – another historical monthly low - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 25 more properties, 24% above last year’s demand levels. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 27 new homeowners in November, allowing MSI to settle with a neutral reading of 4.1.
Healdsburg witnessed 18 new listings debuting in the market last month – 100% greater than a year ago. Buyers absorbed 12 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 14 transactions leaving this submarket with 88 domiciles for presentation to buyers in December – 42% above year ago levels - culminating in an MSI reading of 6.3 – which should allow buyers to be more creative and demanding of terms when negotiating with property holders in this submarket as we open the new year.
At the other end of Sonoma County, Petaluma remains robust with activity as sellers continue to hold the greatest influence while only introducing 18 new listings citywide in November, leaving available inventory at 62 homes for buyers to select from by month’s end. Home seekers latched onto 40 new deals in the period while sellers closed out another 44 purchases pressuring MSI even tighter to 1.4 for the period – a market where sellers are certainly still in the driving the terms on each sale.
Similarly, Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 36 available homes for buyers to consider, which included the 15 new offerings from property holders in November. Home shoppers placed 21 more abodes into contract while sellers completed 19 sales, allowing MSI to slip further into a tightening mode at 1.9.
The factors guiding these forecasts are that both available listings as well as new sales continue to climb in coordination with each other. Expect the year ahead to bring modestly more but do not think that means the flood gates are open either.
This article originally appeared on PressDemocrat.com, where Jeff writes a weekly real estate column.
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