Market Wants Atmospheric River of New Inventory

The rain is falling, and this is sweet news to our region. Now if we could only get more homes to the marketplace to satiate the demands of buyers.
 
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 625 single-family homes left for sale as September concluded – on par with this same period last year. Sellers delivered just 347 new listings to the market during the month – 33 percent fewer than last year - and, if this trend continues, sales will have no choice but to fall as inventories are depleted and options dry up for purchasing. Buyers gained control of another 559 new deals during the period – 17 percent ahead of a year earlier. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 491 this last month – nine percent less than September 2020 – this dip is easily explained by the market not having more inventory to support the requirements of buyers.
 
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with vastly growing demands from buyers in our region along with extremely attractive interest rates driving our markets, the data shows MSI hovering at 1.3 as of last month – with forecasting for steadiness at this level. This display of liquidity and activity is among the highest in the seven Bay Area counties we track and, in some part, due to the native demands of households, unique to our region, who are still replacing the 6000 plus homes they lost in the Tubbs, Nuns, Kincade, Glass and Wallbridge Fire calamities.
 
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
 
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 93 homes reported for sale as September ended. This region experienced the addition of just 27 new listings during the period – 54 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 49 more properties. Sellers awarded keys to another 46 new homeowners – maintaining the trend from twelve months earlier – delivering a steady MSI reading of 2.0.
 
Healdsburg witnessed 19 new listings arrive to the market last month – the fewest since last November. Buyers absorbed 30 homes in new deals while sellers closed out 21 transactions leaving this submarket with 84 homes for presentation to buyers in October, along with an MSI of 4.0 – indicative of a market experiencing buyer fatigue as it nears a balanced reading.
 
Petaluma’s Westside only attracted 19 new sellers in September allowing available inventory to sink to 23 homes remaining for sale by month’s end - primarily due to buyers grabbing 40 new deals in period, the most in any month over this last year. Sellers closed out 27 purchases causing MSI to tighten to 0.9.
 
Across town, Petaluma’s Eastside supply of inventory is still being measured in weeks not months - to be precise two weeks! September wrapped up with 20 available homes for buyers to consider - inclusive of the 21 additional offerings unveiled during the period. Home shoppers placed 30 more dwellings into contract while sellers also completed 31 transactions. With less than a single month’s supply of homes being available – MSI at 0.6 – expect values to rise to encourage more sellers into the market.
 
Constricted by the availability of new supply, Sebastopol sellers delivered just 17 new listings in September - falling severely short of demand as buyers captured another 37 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 31 more sales leaving 31 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in October while highlighting an MSI down to 1.0.
 
If you think you may consider selling, then let’s get you positioned for success!

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