Markets Echo Firm Demand, Even with Higher Interest Rates

Markets Echo Firm Demand, Even with Higher Interest Rates
For the seventh month in a row, the greater Santa Rosa metro region has continued to see values improve and this past month confirmed more records when it comes to the all-time monthly low supply
of inventory.
Within the metropolis of Santa Rosa, according to BAREIS MLS as we work our way through the “summer pause”, the data from July points to a marketplace firmly indicating a voracious demand with
only 196 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 24 percent less than this same time a year ago along with being another all-time low for this month. Buyers laid claim to 157
single-family homes during the past month – a rate 17 percent greater than a year earlier - while the entire municipality introduced 126 new listings to the market in July – 19 percent fewer than in 2022.
The most recent period found Seller’s handing over keys on another 125 completed sales – 24 percent behind last year as well.

This measurable market shift is affirmed by Santa Rosa recording a Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) level at 1.6 – further affirmation buyers have ceded their control to sellers in the marketplace while
establishing yet another data point echoing the uptick in buyer demands being experienced on main street since the opening of the new year; and, now with August looking to establish an eighth
consecutive month.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower
numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Within the city, Northeast Santa Rosa – the North Bay’s most active submarket - saw the introduction of 46 single-family homes in July – 28 percent fewer than this same period a year ago. The supply of homes was met with more active demand during the period as there were only 104 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end – one percent lower than the depths we were experiencing at this time last year. Buyers still managed to absorb 57 homes into new contracts with sellers receiving closing checks on another 40 properties – resulting in MSI steadying at 2.6 – keep in mind that in this sector some of the new listings posted are offerings for homes to be built yet so that adds some unrealistic bulk to what is really available to purchase now, unlike most other sub-markets in the region.

Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of listed properties rest at 36 again by month’s end – 22 percent less than just a year earlier. This submarket debuted 21 new listings in July – 16 percent fewer than last
year - while buyers garnered accepted offers on another 25 additional dwellings. This coveted corner of the city experienced 18 formal transfers in the period culminating in an MSI of 2.0.
It's been a wild ride in Oakmont with voracious buyer demands coming from outside our marketplace. As we close the books on July, there were just 11 available homes for buyers to peruse, which is
inclusive of property owners launching 12 new offerings during the period. Buyers inked out 17 new deals while sellers completed 18 transactions during the month, allowing MSI to tighten further to 0.6 –
one of the tightest readings throughout the Northbay marketplace.

Northwest Santa Rosa buyers made advances to gain control of 38 more deals while leaving just 26 single-family homes available for sale at the end of July. Sellers committed 25 additional offerings to the
market while another 35 homes completed the closing process leaving this region with an MSI at 0.7. Southwest Santa Rosa sellers delivered 22 new offerings to the market while consumers placed 20 more
dwellings into contract during the period. Newly minted homeowners received keys to their new doors on the heels of 14 closings, leaving 19 dwellings available for buyers to view in August while causing MSI to hover around 1.0.

Even with interest rates where they are today, we continue to find our markets depleted of inventory due to continued demand from buyers and sellers unwilling to part with the homes they own. The only
thing holding back more buyers is the cost of money and when these rates make a turn downward you better hold onto your hats as the expectation will be to see an even greater imbalance that could be
additional catalyst for values ascending in our marketplace again.