Markets Indicative if a Healthy Return

Our markets have shrugged off the winter doldrums and sprang into action. Inventory has climbed, though an equal amount of buying interest has risen simultaneously – which is a very healthy indicator that states our markets may be in the initial phase of returning to some historical metrics with regards to annual units sold as we come out of a decade long market riddled with year over year compressions.
 
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 872 single-family homes left for sale as April closed the ledger on available inventory – 32 percent more than a year earlier and indicating a resumption to normal historical trends for this time of year. Sellers delivered 407 new offerings to market during the period – 24 percent fewer than last year when the month recorded the arrival of 536 new listings. Sonoma County witnessed 434 properties receiving accepted offers in April – 14 percent greater than last year and further showcasing a market with a robust level of buyers in it – while sellers successfully traded 324 dwellings during the month at a median value of $645,000.
 
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with renewed vigor from buyers in our region to compliment the reprieve in interest rates along with sellers being more in line with market sentiments, the data points to an MSI of 2.7 – yet another month that further confirms the rebound in our markets by echoing this steady rate over the last six months.
 
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
 
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 127 homes reported for sale as April concluded. This region experienced the addition of 40 new properties during the period – 17 percent fewer than the prior year. Sonoma buyers moved forward on contracting with sellers on 35 new deals while another 35 homeowners were given keys to their new dwellings at a median value of $814,000. The dynamics within this market have shifted from our extended winter sluggishness to our early summer buoyancy with MSI hovering at 3.6 – indicative of markets remaining on the edge of seller’s control.
 
As April’s data filled in the charts, Healdsburg buyers placed 22 dwellings into contract while leaving 95 properties to greet home seekers in May – newly listed units on the market accounted for 32 of these. This submarket formally transferred new deeds on 17 single-family homes, at a median value of $969,000, while allowing the MSI to contract to 5.6 – still a balanced reading but one with pressure indicating a tighter market to come.
 
Residents of Petaluma’s Westside saw availability steady from a year earlier as the population of homes for sale stood at 36 by months end. Sellers introduced just 23 new offerings to the market during the period – 21 percent less than were presented in 2018 – while buyers managed to place contracts on 27 existing properties. Altogether, the sale of 21 abodes at a median price of $829,000 pushed the markets back under seller control with MSI tracking lower to 1.7.
 
The tightest market in Sonoma County – Petaluma’s Eastside – closed out the month with 21 available homes to select from, inclusive of the 18 homes that debuted during the period. Home shoppers gained control of 30 more accepted contracts while sellers completed an additional 27 transactions at a median value of $635,000 – firmly holding this market under the control of existing property owners as MSI plunged further to 0.8 in April.
 
Similarly tight though not as severe, the coalesced submarkets of Rohnert Park and Cotati had 45 single-family homes remaining for sale at months end – inclusive of the 29 new properties that sellers introduced during the period. Buyers managed to absorb 42 units in new contracts while deals were completed on an additional 28 dwellings with the median value hovering at $561,000, leaving this submarket with a steady MSI of 1.6 indicating to buyers that time is of the essence.
 
Sebastopol checked in with an availability of 57 homes by months end which included the 26 that were freshly delivered during the period. Sellers ratified 26 purchase agreements while buyers closed 20 more escrows at a median price of $870,000 allowing the MSI to contract to 2.9 – meaning this market has snapped back in favor of sellers and that the near term should remain highly competitive for properties priced closest to their resale value.
 
The early results are pouring in as we watch for more data points to affirm a healthy rebound in our marketplace. Make sure you are on the right side of the equation – reach out for your check.

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