Mood vs Metrics...Which is Correct?
Both! Metrics tell the tale of what has occurred over time unearthing trends from anomalies while mood foreshadows a turn or palpable change in market buyers attitudes and demands – a forward looking tell that is fundamentally more important to knowing what’s happening next…the rest is history.
Within the metropolis of Santa Rosa, according to BAREIS MLS with the first month of the new year behind us, the data points to a marketplace still in the process of establishing its new cadence with only 143 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 30 percent less than this same time a year ago as well as another new all-time low. Buyers laid claim to 83 single-family homes during the past month – a rate 34 percent less than a year earlier - while the entire municipality introduced just 72 new listings to the market in January – 56 percent fewer than in 2022. The most recent period found Seller’s handing over keys on another 55 completed sales – 54 percent behind last year.
This measurable market shift is affirmed by Santa Rosa recording a Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) level at 2.6 even while January was besieged by foul weather for nearly the entire month. To date, we are seeing an extreme uptick in buyer demands again, typically ahead of sellers introducing new inventory for review.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Within the city, Northeast Santa Rosa – the North Bay’s most active submarket - saw the introduction of just 26 single-family homes in January – 63 percent fewer than this same period a year ago. The supply of homes was met with more active demand during the period as there were merely 59 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end – 38 percent lower than the depths we were experiencing at this time last year while concurrently confirming another new bottom when it comes to home options. Buyers still managed to absorb 20 homes into new contracts with sellers receiving closing checks on just 15 properties – resulting in MSI rising to 3.9 though with expectations of this tightening significantly in February.
Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of listed properties rest at 22 by month’s end – another all-time low reading and 48 percent less than just a year earlier. This submarket debuted just 12 new listings in January while buyers garnered accepted offers on another 12 additional dwellings. This coveted corner of the city experienced eight formal transfers in the period culminating in a MSI reading of 2.8.
The quantity of available listings in Oakmont fell once again to 17 by months end with property owners launching but eight new offerings during the period. Buyers inked out 14 new deals while sellers completed merely four transactions in January, allowing MSI to rise to 4.3 on extremely lite closing volume which tends to overstate the actual market condition when a single digit denominator is in play.
Northwest Santa Rosa buyers made advances to gain control of 29 more deals while leaving just 29 single-family homes available for sale at the end of the period. Sellers committed 19 additional offerings to the market while another 17 homes completed the closing process leaving this region with a much tighter MSI reading of 1.7.
Southwest Santa Rosa sellers delivered just seven new offerings to the market while consumers placed eight more dwellings into contract during the period. Newly minted homeowners captured keys to new doors on the heels of 11 closings, leaving 16 abodes available for buyers to peruse in February while establishing an MSI steadying at 1.5.
What is your mood telling you?
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