Open to the New

Open to the New
Golf’s oldest running tournament – The Open – unveiled for the 148th time with its storied past continues to challenge the world’s most proficient experts at every turn. This tournament, famous for the grimaces it brings to each contestant’s face, is played on a classic “Links” style course where being the longest hitter is exactly what you don’t want to be. The gruelling course at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland requires the greatest accuracy and patience of those seeking to conquer it – as most will not. Similarly, in a market where so many are having to consider constructing their new home, the only way you should expect success is with careful planning, extreme patience and the selection of a competent team to orchestrate the undertaking.
As our Santa Rosa metro region shifts to accommodate the new market dynamics that are upon it, the traditional “bell curve” of activity may be in process of being reshaped while the markets work to sort out the loss of 5,130 homes and their occupants’ requirements for housing left in waiting. According to BAREIS MLS, with June in our rearview mirror, we find the marketplace adding to its earlier momentum with only 368 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – a two percent dip from this same time last year – coupled with a corresponding six percent increase in accepted offers during the month thereby giving very clear readings of a market that should be holding – if not increasing – in value compared to the prior two quarters.
The entire municipality introduced only 166 new listings to the market in June – an astonishing 40 percent fewer than the 277 presented a year ago - while the most recent period also found Sellers handing over keys on 154 completed sales at a median value of $610,000 - leaving Santa Rosa with its’ Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) steadily holding at 2.4.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the underlying specifics, Northeast Santa Rosa - by far the singular market most impacted by the events of October 2017 and one that will take some time to reestablish itself as the regions premier locale - saw the introduction of only 52 single-family homes in June – 37 percent fewer than in 2018. The supply of homes was met with solid absorption during the period as there were only 157 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end. Buyers embarked on 50 newly initiated escrows – up one percent from last year - while sellers received closing checks on another 50 properties at a median value of $659,000 essentially resetting the MSI to a reading of 3.1 and further indicating a steady market for well-priced homes, though not allowing sellers to push the envelope in terms of pressing for significantly more. 
Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of available properties steady at 60 by months end. This submarket welcomed just 24 new offerings in July – 50 percent fewer sellers than a year earlier - while buyers captured accepted offers on 25 more abodes. This coveted corner of the city experienced 27 formal transfers of title at a median value of $679,000 – further tightening the MSI to 2.2 and echoing a broader markets desire to pay more for this location than it has in the past.
Oakmont – still reverberating over what will come with regards to the sale of the Golf Club – saw inventory bolstered by 20 new offerings, bringing the total available to 54 by months end. Buyers found their way to acceptances on 16 new purchases – echoing a return to average activity this month - while sellers concluded another 10 transactions during the period at a median value of $634,000. The activity level indicates a market in balance where values may remain flat until the golf club situation has resolution.
Northwest Santa Rosa remains hotly in demand as sellers debuted 52 new properties during the month – 32 percent less than last June – with buyers absorbing 55 new deals into contract – 34 percent more than the prior year. Sellers completed transfers on 51 domiciles – at a median value of $548,000 - leaving this submarket with 65 available homes to open with in July – 34 percent less than the period a year ago - further affirming the broader marketplace demands and holding the MSI at 1.3 – Santa Rosa’s tightest submarket.
Similarly, Southwest Santa Rosa debuted 18 new properties in June, thereby bringing the total available to 32 by months end. Buyers jumped in to gain control of another 18 deals while sellers closed out 16 sales at a median value of $590,000 – a new all-time high for this submarket. The data points to a tougher road for buyers and a market that may be gaining pricing momentum as MSI steadied at 2.0.
As a market participant you need intestinal fortitude coupled with a the right team of experts to deliver you home again…Come see how we make that happen! 

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