As we continue to see a furtherance of deurbanization from core Bay Area markets, Santa Rosa appears to be one of the leading net beneficiaries of this population being on the move.
The Santa Rosa metro region is working to accommodate the demands of the greater Bay Area along with its’ own, and according to BAREIS MLS, having just wrapped up March the data points to a marketplace still absorbing homes at higher than typical seasonal level with only 200 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 22 percent less than this same time a year ago and fewer than last month’s all-time low. Exacerbated buyer activity has claimed another 232 single-family homes during the past month – 80 percent ahead of last year.
The entire municipality introduced 177 new listings to the market over the last month while the most recent period also found Sellers handing over keys on 182 completed sales – 50 percent ahead of last year - and we expect these metrics to continue to compress. With the lack of a credible supply of new inventory, the statistics will be artificially hampered due to a significant portion of unsatiated demand going unmet each month as more homes continue to be absorbed while fewer sellers enter the “open” market. This compression is affirmed by Santa Rosa recording its’ Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) falling to 1.1 – attributed in good part due to the fundamental shift in population migration from the greater Bay Area along with the cost of money in our current economy coupled with the sellers remaining on the sidelines.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the underlying specifics, Northeast Santa Rosa saw the introduction of 63 single-family homes in March with a significant number of these homes being offered for sale that are in the waning months of construction, thus making them hard to transact on due to their unfinished status. The supply of homes was met with enhanced demands during the period as there were only 87 dwellings – another consecutive all-time low - for home seekers to consider by months end. Buyers embarked on 83 newly initiated escrows – 119 percent ahead of last year - while sellers received closing checks on another 75 properties – 83 percent more than in 2020 - culminating in an MSI of 1.2 and getting tighter.
Similarly, Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of available properties drop to 28 by the end of last month – 18 percent less than a year earlier. This submarket debuted just 32 new homes in March while buyers garnered accepted offers on 45 additional dwellings – a stunning 73 percent above last year’s newly minted deals. This coveted corner of the city experienced 37 formal transfers in the period – 118 percent more than the prior March – placing further pressure on an already tight market with MSI dipping deeper to 0.8 - which means we are measuring in “weeks” the supply of housing now not months.
Oakmont continues to build momentum as it works to step in line with what the balance of the Santa Rosa metro markets are experiencing. The active adult retirement community witnessed 28 new sellers debuting their offerings in March while buyers showed up in force putting 29 deals under contract – 263 percent ahead of last year as we entered the pandemic. Sellers concluded 12 transactions during the month leaving this niche market with 45 available homes to open with in April along with an MSI working its way tighter while now at 3.8.
Northwest Santa Rosa – a market severely hampered by available homes for sale - saw buyers swoop in to gain control of 51 more deals this month leaving just 27 available single-family homes to carry over into April – 48 percent fewer than last year. Sellers committed 36 additional new offerings to the markets while another 43 homes completed the closing process. This intense activity has brought the MSI teetering near its’ all-time low of 0.5 – essentially a two-week supply of homes!
Similarly tight, Southwest Santa Rosa buyers completed 15 more deals in March, leaving just 13 homes available for those seeking new dwellings this month – an all-time low. Sellers submitted 18 new listings into the public domain during the period while buyers pledged their paychecks towards 24 accepted contracts causing this submarkets MSI to sink precipitously to 0.9 – further confirming the heightened demands of the rest of our region.
We maintain records to gather perspective and celebrate excellence. Without such, you could not measure growth or achievements nor gauge trends. These milestones are not the end of anything just a marker along the continuum of our lives and the world we live within – the only time they stop for us is upon our passing though the world keeps moving onward towards new records.