A phrase we are using repeatedly that has become all to frequent in our conversations. Webster’s dictionary defines this as one’s ability to withstand and recover quickly from difficult conditions. Well, that is us. Resiliency may help us overcome our “softness” while testing everyone’s mettle along the way. Though as we all have come to understand each of us only has so much capacity to handle stressful situations that typically force us into fight or flight mode. Those that fight may find themselves gaining fortitude while those that flee may find relief - neither is wrong – it is just the human condition and each of us must figure it out for ourselves.
With Autumn upon us - and hopes for wildfire season and election anxieties to temper soon - we are getting back to work. According to BAREIS MLS, October’s data points indicate that Sonoma County buyers successfully contracted to purchase 450 single-family homes – 21 percent higher than just a year earlier. Property owners delivered 406 new listings to the market during the period – 13 percent greater than the prior October – while the County saw a stunning, and trend affirming, 472 sales reach fruition by months end – 15 percent greater than a year ago. The compression within our markets is easily understood by realizing that the spike in buyer demands coupled with reluctant seller’s overtime creates a chasm that inevitably forces prices higher to tempt sellers to market. This immense activity is causing available inventory to zoom off the shelves, leaving just 732 single-family homes to carry over into November – a stunning 29 percent fewer available listings than in 2019 - establishing one of the Bay Area’s highest absorption rates of 65 percent.
The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the total number of homes sold in a month by the total number of homes available for sale at the end of the same month. A high absorption rate – 20 percent and above – indicates that the supply of available homes will shrink rapidly, thereby increasing the odds that an owner will sell a property in a shorter period. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15 percent is indicative of a buyer’s market, meaning homes are selling more slowly.
Marin County’s marketplace is running even hotter than its neighbor to the North. October showcased 224 new single-family offerings with buyers quickly latching onto 319 freshly consummated deals – 52 percent greater than in 2019. Sellers closed out 269 transactions during the period - compared with 227 last year at this same time - leaving the entire region with 332 homes available for sale – 15 percent fewer than last October. Marin’s extreme pace indicates an absorption rate of 81 percent – providing further evidence of the deurbanization movement away from the core Bay Area metropolises.
Napa County’s markets are benefitting from the trends expressed above with sellers blessing the market with just 89 new homes this last month – 21 percent fewer than in 2019. That said, buyers aggressively swarmed into contract on 118 new deals while sellers closed out a remarkable 142 sales in October – 14 percent above last year - leaving this region with just 266 homes available to the marketplace as we open the doors to November. This stint of activity showcased a 54 percent absorption rate and further denotes a supply shortened market ahead.
In life, sometimes doors close on us and other times they open for us. We make decisions along our path to the future, and each time we do, we alter the things that will show up in our lives moving forward. Cheers to you and the path you journey upon…For us, we are still calling Sonoma County our home.