Sales Volume Flat with Chance of Sunshine to Follow
With the year end nearing, the markets are telling a similar tale to last year when sales volume rolled back to 30+ year lows as prices flattened then dipped. This year opened with a modest expansion in activity then succumbed to the Federal Reserves decision to escalate interest rates to a multi-decade high further dampening market activity and ultimately pressuring overall prices downward until October when it looks like Sonoma County put in a floor to this with indications of bouncing off this bottom as we roll into 2025.
According to the most recent data collected by BAREIS MLS, a current overview of Sonoma County shows an average sold price per-square-foot (psf) of $554 being paid for a single-family home – 2% less than last year at this time though well above the 24-month low of $530psf – corroborating other data points that denote a market weaving along at a level trying to find its way while being hampered by elevated mortgage rates, low inventory supply levels and sales volume flat with the prior year as well as hovering at levels not experienced since the early 1990’s - when our local population was half the size it is now.
Within the 15 different sub-markets of Sonoma County, sales of single-family homes in Windsor turned in the greatest improvement to close the month 25% higher than a year earlier at $529psf while the Town of Sonoma jumped 12% over the same period to $807psf. Nipping on those heels, Petaluma’s Eastside heralded in an 11% gain to $531psf with our dramatic Coastal region delivering 9% gains to $818psf. Northwest Santa Rosa clocked sales crossing the finish line at $468psf – 8% higher – outpacing Southeast Santa Rosa where values closed up 7% at $531psf.
A bit further afield, the Cotati and Rohnert Park marketplace nudged ahead 2% to $422psf while Oakmont surrendered 1% from a year earlier to see average sales completed at $463psf. Petaluma’s Westside, along with the Russian River region and Northeast Santa Rosa, traded 9% lower at $587psf, $469psf and $468psf, respectively.
Coughing up 11%, Sebastopol sales retreated to $555psf while Southwest Santa Rosa saw values clipped 12% to $412psf. Cloverdale – where light volume is typical and this metric swings wildly due to this – witnessed the five sales in October close at an average $352psf. This month’s cellar dweller is Healdsburg, which saw values along this metric shrink 28% as the average single-family home sold for $852psf.
Now that we have cleared a hotly debated and decision stifling event like this last Presidential election, we are seeing enthusiasm and confidence return to the marketplace. We expect this year to close out on par with where we are now though with expectations of a greater volume of determined buyers jumping into the pool as this next year gets underway, then the marketplace cadence will be determined by how many willing sellers show up to join in.
This article originally appeared on PressDemocrat.com, where Jeff writes a weekly real estate column.
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