It’s that time of year when our markets typically are lulled into a slumber - though with interest rates in the cellar and a lack of broad new homes to offer to the community for sale - we are encountering a strong finish to the year, which typically means an early Spring bounce in our region.
The Santa Rosa metro region is shifting to accommodate the new market dynamics that have been thrust upon it as the traditional “bell curve” of activity may be in process of being reshaped while the markets work to sort out the loss of 5,334 homes along with the reemergence of these homes and the lives that once occupied them. According to BAREIS MLS, with November in our rearview mirror, we find the marketplace adding to its earlier momentum with only 304 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – a 15 percent dip from this same time last year – coupled with a corresponding four percent increase in accepted offers during the month thereby affirming that this marketplace may start encountering upward pressure on values.
The entire municipality introduced only 91 new listings to the market in November – a staggering 34 percent fewer than a year ago - while the most recent period also found Sellers handing over keys on 149 completed sales at a median value of $615,000 - leaving Santa Rosa with its’ Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) at 2.0.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the underlying specifics, Northeast Santa Rosa - by far the singular market most impacted by the events of October 2017 and one that will take some time to reestablish itself as the region’s premier locale - saw the introduction of only 27 single-family homes in November – 34 percent fewer than in 2018. The supply of homes was met with solid absorption during the period as there were only 129 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end. Buyers embarked on 46 newly initiated escrows – up 35 percent from last year - while sellers received closing checks on another 49 properties at a median value of $741,000 - affirming a steadied MSI of 2.6, and further indicating buyers demands for well-priced homes.
Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of available properties shrink to 48 by months end. This submarket debuted just 17 new offerings in November - while buyers captured accepted deals on 31 more abodes. This coveted corner of the city experienced 36 formal transfers of title at a median value of $638,000 – causing the MSI to plummet to 1.3 – offering corroborating data that supports a strong opening to the new year.
Oakmont saw only eight willing sellers deliver new offerings in November boosting total available inventory to 40 by months end. Buyers found their way to acceptances on 11 new purchases while sellers concluded just six transactions during the period at a median value of $610,000. The activity level indicates a market that has shifted – though sporadically - from a seller’s market to one that is in balance, or in the case of this month’s data slightly favoring buyers with MSI registering 6.7.
Northwest Santa Rosa witnessed 28 new offerings in November as buyers absorbed 32 of those into accepted deals during the period. Sellers completed the sale of 41 domiciles – at a median value of $580,000 - leaving this submarket with 55 available homes to open with in December – 33 percent less than a year ago when there were 82 in play and further affirming the broader marketplace demands with MSI collapsing to 1.3.
Southwest Santa Rosa embraced the introduction of 11 new properties in November, thereby bringing the total available to 32 by months end. Buyers jumped in to gain control of 11 new homes with sellers closing out another 17 sales at a median value of $570,000 - leaving this market with an MSI of 1.9.
From the chaos of the last few years has come progress - along with a renewed sense of hope - as old neighbors and new community members are once again able to call Santa Rosa home. We have so much to be thankful for yet so much more to accomplish as every new set of keys and deeds bring with it someone looking to create new memories #SantaRosaStrong.
