Seller’s, Have They Been Exhausted?

Coming off the rush to market a year ago we find that there are just not as many sellers to go around as there were at that time. Did the activity swirl from the firestorms release all the majority interests of sellers that would be players in our marketplace or will more make that determination this year?
 
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 597 single-family homes left for sale as February closed the ledger on available inventory – 23 percent more than a year earlier, though four percent below January’s levels – which is very unusual. Sellers delivered 207 new offerings to market during the period – 50 percent fewer than last year when the month recorded the arrival of 417 new listings. Sonoma County witnessed 276 properties garnering accepted offers in February – just three percent less than a year earlier - while sellers successfully traded 214 dwellings during the month at a median value of $620,000.
 
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with renewed vigor from buyers in our region to compliment the reprieve in interest rates along with sellers being more in line with market sentiments, the data points to an MSI of 2.8 – another month that further confirms the rebound in our markets which are supported by this metrics strengthening measure.
 
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
 
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 76 homes reported for sale as February concluded. This region experienced the addition of 17 new properties during the period – 55 percent fewer than the prior year. Sonoma buyers moved forward on contracting with sellers on 19 new agreements while another 12 homeowners were given keys to their new dwellings. The dynamics within this market were heavily influenced by the atmospheric rivers that drenched Sonoma Valley thereby pushing MSI to a new high reading of 6.8 – indicative of a buyer’s market - though not necessarily spot on with sentiments on the street.
 
As February’s data filled in the charts, Healdsburg buyers placed 13 dwellings into contract while leaving 54 properties to greet home seekers in March – newly listed units on the market accounted for 11 of these. This submarket formally transferred new deeds on nine single-family homes leaving the region with an MSI of 6.0 – showcasing very similar impacts seen in Sonoma Valley as these touted touristy spots found retarded dynamics during the period which contributed primarily to this month’s readings.
 
Residents of Petaluma’s Westside saw availability steady from a year earlier as the population of homes for sale stood at 28 by months end. Sellers introduced just 15 new offerings to the market during the period – much unlike the 34 new listing presented in 2018 - while buyers managed to place contracts on 14 existing properties. Altogether, the sale of 11 abodes pushed the markets back under seller control as MSI fell to 2.5.
 
More indicative of the overall marketplace, Petaluma’s Eastside closed out the month with 17 available homes to select from – inclusive of the seven homes that debuted during the period - which is far below the 29 that found their way to market a year ago. Home shoppers gained control of 17 more accepted contracts while sellers completed an additional 13 transactions holding this market firmly under the control of existing property owners with MSI reading 1.1 for the month.
 
Within the coalesced regions of Rohnert Park and Cotati we found 39 single-family homes remaining for sale by months end including the 14 new properties that sellers introduced during the same period. Buyers managed to absorb 25 units in new contracts while deals were completed on an additional 15 dwellings, leaving this submarket with an MSI of 2.6.
 
Windsor checked in with an availability of 38 single family homes by months end which included the 13 that were freshly delivered during the period. Sellers ratified 19 purchase agreements while buyers closed 12 more escrows allowing the MSI to rise to 3.2 - which appears to be only a temporarily heightened status due to the volume of activity in the region we are experiencing. Unless a preponderance of sellers make their way to market, we may find a significantly unpredicted climb in property values this Spring. Let’s chat about how we make your story a success!

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