Summer to Sunset Shortly

Summer to Sunset Shortly

As the Summer of 2024 nears the end, we expect to get a bounce in buyer activity as we roll into the next few months, conversely, we believe we will see fewer sellers releasing new inventory to the marketplace and this coupled with the anticipation of lower interest rates could set Autumn up for being a very competitive period with a higher than usual seasonal volume of sales.

According to Compass, Sonoma County had exactly 892 single-family homes left for sale at the close of July – 38 percent greater than this same period a year earlier. Sellers delivered 332 new listings to the market during the month – 13 percent less than in 2023 and a another new all-time low - while buyers garnered control of another 390 new deals – seven percent more than a year ago. In support of these metrics, completed sales stood at 382 for the period – 16 percent greater than the 330 sold at this same time last year.

The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve indicating its intentions to lower rates we may see this metric retreat to tighter readings as it did this month – retreating to 2.3 – indicating sellers regained a little more control over the markets within Sonoma County as a whole. 

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Steadying near activity readings that are on the edge of being considered balanced, the tony town of Sonoma, which submarket includes properties in Kenwood and Glen Ellen, reported 135 homes for sale as July concluded – 23 percent higher than last year. This region experienced the addition of 27 new listings during the month – another historical low - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 31 more properties, 18 percent below last year’s demand levels. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 36 new homeowners allowing MSI to back off last month’s first balanced reading to close at 3.8 for the current period.

Healdsburg witnessed 13 new listings debuting in the market last month – 41 percent fewer than a year ago. Buyers absorbed 14 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 13 transactions leaving this submarket with 87 dwellings for presentation to buyers in August – 24 percent above year ago levels - culminating in an MSI reading of 6.7 – lower volumes tend to influence wilder swings in this metric though we still must note that at this level, buyers should have much more influence as to the outcome of a transaction than we have seen in 11 years.

Petaluma’s Westside continues to revel in activity as sellers introduced 21 new listings in July leaving available inventory at 60 homes for buyers to select from by month’s end. Home seekers grabbed 24 new deals in the period while sellers closed out another 27 purchases pressuring MSI tighter to 2.2 for the period – a market where sellers are certainly still in the driver’s seat.

Even more challenging for buyers to get a foothold, Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 36 available homes for buyers to consider, which included the 15 new offerings from property owners in July – another historic low for the period. Home shoppers placed 21 more abodes into contract while sellers completed 25 sales, sending MSI tighter to 1.4.

Summer has been in full force in the Russian River region with buyer demands as property owners delivered 34 new listings in July while buyers captured another 37 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 28 more transactions leaving 89 single-family homes available for buyers to chase in August while establishing an MSI of 3.2 – still a sellers’ market.

As noted before, August tends to be one of the best months for buyers to make deals as our markets typically are more aloof during this period, and this year is no different. Be prepared for more buyers to enter the market this fall to capitalize on inventory offerings, interest rates and finally being able to close their books on this quest. If you think it’s time to update your strategy, then get in touch now!