Summering is the Markets Newest Past Time

Summering is the Markets Newest Past Time

For decades, the statistics have demonstrated in our region that the summer selling season is where the bulk of sales activity has come from during any given year, but over the course of the last four years our busiest months of the year have been February, March, April, May, September and October. Could this be that historical trend lines are changing, or could this be due to the effect of highly contracted inventory levels?

Within the metropolis of Santa Rosa, according to BAREIS MLS, May’s data points to a marketplace continuing with a steady at expected seasonal demand levels with 274 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 50 percent greater than this same time last year and a solid bounce from where inventory levels have stood even though this level is still near all-time lows. Home seekers laid claim to 177 single-family homes during the past month – 23 percent more than last year at this same time - while the entire municipality introduced 154 new listings to the market during this period – 16 percent less than in 2023. The most recent period also found Seller’s handing over keys on another 138 completed sales – two percent behind the 141 dwellings that traded hands twelve months prior. 

Santa Rosa recorded a Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) level of 2.0 – continuing to affirm that sellers are exerting more influence on the marketplace than buyers. MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Northeast Santa Rosa – the North Bay’s most active submarket - saw the introduction of 49 single-family homes in May – 34 percent fewer than this same period a year ago. The supply of homes was met with steady demand as there were 131 dwellings for house hunters to consider by months end – 35 percent more than during the same period last year. Buyers managed to absorb 61 homes into new contracts – nine percent ahead of last year - with sellers receiving closing checks on another 44 properties – 21 percent greater than in 2023 with these number culminating in a MSI of 3.0. Keep in mind that in this sector some of the new listings posted are offerings for homes under construction, which adds some unrealistic bulk to what is really available to purchase now, unlike most other sub-markets throughout the County.

Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of listed properties rest at 50 when June opened – 22 percent more than just a year earlier. This submarket debuted 31 new listings in May – six percent behind last year’s figures - while buyers garnered accepted offers on 29 additional dwellings – exactly the it was a year earlier. This coveted corner of the city experienced 21 formal transfers in the period resulting in MSI steadying at 2.4.

Busier than everywhere else in our region, Oakmont has been experiencing exceptional demand from buyers and seeing sellers respond with greater offerings with another 17 making their debut in May. Buyers jumped in and grabbed 21 new deals while sellers closed out 17 sales leaving this region with 25 available homes for buyers to pursue in June – relegating MSI to steady at 1.5.

Northwest Santa Rosa saw buyers advance to control 47 more deals while leaving another 47 single-family homes available for sale at the beginning of June. Sellers committed 42 new offerings to the market in the period while 33 additional homes crossed the finish line allowing this regions MSI to tighten further to 1.4.

Southwest Santa Rosa’s activity stepped into overdrive this past month as consumers placed 19 dwellings into contract during the period just as sellers handed over the keys to 23 newly minted homeowners leaving just 21 dwellings for buyers to view in June and this market is staring down an immensely tighter MSI of 0.9.

Maybe our activity levels have shifted as our markets have become more affluent? A population with means tends to travel and experience more and that tends to happen in our summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. This may explain the excuses we hear from clients when they say they will be gone for a month or two, “let’s pick up the search after we return so we can really recommit to the focus at hand”? Whatever it is, only time will tell if this is a new trend or a hangover from living through the Pandemic.