The Autumn Flurry Begins

The Autumn Flurry Begins

September and October are typically high activity months during each calendar year and this year is no exception. According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 728 single-family homes left for sale at the close of September – six percent greater than this same period twelve months earlier. Sellers delivered 273 new listings to the market during the period – 29 percent less than in 2022 - while buyers garnered control of another 348 new deals – 15 percent greater than a year earlier. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 274 for the period – 23 percent fewer than the 358 homes sold last year.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve aggressively trying to dampen demand by raising the cost of money, MSI has
continued to stabilize and in July the level stood at 2.7 – still indicative of a seller’s market as we roll into Autumn. MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 116 homes reported for sale as September concluded – 22 percent higher
than last year. This region experienced the addition of 34 new listings during the month while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 43 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 33 new
homeowners – essentially on par with a year earlier – allowing MSI to rise to 3.5. Healdsburg witnessed 17 new listings arrive to the market last month – 15 percent less than a year ago.

Buyers absorbed 21 homes in new deals while sellers closed out just eight transactions leaving this submarket with 75 homes for presentation to buyers in October – which is 42 percent higher than
where it was last year while revealing an MSI swinging back and forth, though much higher for this period at 9.4. Petaluma’s Westside attracted 14 new sellers in September leaving available inventory at 41 homes for buyers to select from by months end. Home seekers grabbed 23 new deals in the period while sellers closed out just 14 purchases sending MSI lower to 2.9.

Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 49 available homes for buyers to consider – a new high for the running twelve-month period – as this included 18 additional offerings brought forth during September.
Home shoppers placed 17 more dwellings into contract while sellers completed 19 sales – 14 percent fewer than in 2022 – causing MSI to rise to 2.6 for the month. Windsor property owners delivered just 15 new listings in September while buyers captured 22 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 14 more transactions leaving 24 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in October while establishing an MSI of 1.7 for the period.

Buyers are much more active than in July and August and remain reticent at their endeavor to acquire their new homes – even with the average interest rate on a new mortgage in the seven percent range.
Not hard to imagine when you consider nearly 35 percent of the deals being done are all cash. The bigger question will be, whether or not we can find a surge of inventory coming in 2024 or if this next year will just be more of the same.