The Dog Days of a Summer Market
With Americans continuing to celebrate the life they had put on hold since the early days of the pandemic, we expect buyer activity to be diminished - compared to typical - through the end of August.
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 583 single-family homes left for sale at June’s conclusion – 15 percent fewer than this same period last year. Sellers delivered 333 new listings to the market during the month – 49 percent less than in 2021 - while buyers gained control of another 389 new deals – 32 percent off from a year earlier due to available inventory being 15 percent off what it was last year at this time coupled with a distracted consumer and higher interest rates. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 398 this last month – 34 percent fewer than the prior year.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve aggressively trying to dampen demand by raising the cost of money MSI has risen from the depths to 1.5 as of last month. This display of liquidity and activity is still among the highest in the seven Bay Area counties we track and, in part, due to the native demands of households, unique to our region, who are still replacing the 6000 plus homes they lost in the Tubbs, Nuns, Kincade, Glass and Wallbridge Fire calamities.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 82 homes reported for sale as June ended – 28 percent less than this same period a year ago. This region experienced the addition of just 28 new listings during the period – 59 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 40 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to another 45 new homeowners – 35 percent off a year earlier - holding the MSI at 1.8.
Healdsburg witnessed just 13 new listings arrive to the market last month – 65 percent fewer than in 2021. Buyers absorbed 20 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 20 transactions leaving this submarket with 59 homes for presentation to buyers in July, along with an MSI of 3.0.
Petaluma’s Westside attracted merely 18 new sellers in June which allowed available inventory to begin the new month with only 22 homes for buyers to select from. Home seekers grabbed 29 new deals in the period while sellers closed out 20 purchases causing the MSI to expand to 1.1.
Sebastopol wrapped up June with 38 available homes for buyers to consider inclusive of the 15 additional offerings unveiled during the period. Home shoppers placed 26 more dwellings into contract while sellers completed 28 sales. With MSI tightening to 1.4.
Windsor property owners delivered 25 new listings in June while buyers captured another 24 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 26 more transactions leaving 42 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in July while highlighting an MSI moving up to 1.6.
The real trends will reappear once we see how the market behaves in September and October, thereby establishing the cadence of our markets going into winter and foreshadowing what we should expect as we enter the new year.
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