2025 - Markets Begin to Heat Up
As we exit the slumbering markets of December and January, we are seeing activity build on both sides of the ledger from buyers and sellers.
According to BARIES MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 550 single-family homes left for sale when 2024 concluded – 28% greater than in 2023. Sellers delivered 111 new listings to the market during the month – 28 % less than in 2023 as well as being another new all-time low - while buyers garnered control of another 200 new deals – 13% more than a year ago. In support of these metrics, completed sales stood at 248 for the period – 8% greater than the 229 sold at this same time last year.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve having now reduced interest rates we are witnessing a market shifting more towards a seller favorable reading of 2.2 – affirming the most recent trends that our markets will not slip towards a balanced one and will likely remain as it has since 2011, a sellers’ market, with a greater percentage chance of 2025 being a year where we witness both sales volume and prices edge upwards once again.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
From balanced to hear we go again, the Town of Sonoma, which submarket includes properties throughout Kenwood and Glen Ellen, reported 66 homes for sale as December concluded – 27% higher than last year. This region experienced the addition of just four new listings during the month – another historical monthly low - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 20 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to 26 new homeowners in December – 136% more deals than last year at this time leading to a revamped MSI of 2.5 – a return from balance to a market more favorable to sellers.
Healdsburg witnessed just four new listings debuting in the market last month, just like a year ago. Buyers absorbed 18 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 27 transactions leaving this submarket with 48 domiciles for presentation to buyers in January – 118% above year ago levels - culminating in an MSI reading of 1.7 – which means the pendulum has swung back in favor of those who already own real estate.
At the other end of Sonoma County, Petaluma’s Westside remains robust with activity as sellers continue to hold the greatest influence while only introducing five new listings in December, leaving available inventory at 25 homes for buyers to select from by year’s end. Home seekers latched onto 14 new deals in the period while sellers closed out another 19 purchases pressuring MSI even tighter to 1.3 for the period – a market where sellers are certainly still setting the terms for each sale.
Similarly, Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 23 available homes for buyers to consider, which included the four new offerings from property holders in December. Home shoppers placed 11 more abodes into contract while sellers completed 21 sales, allowing MSI to fall to 1.1 – a sign to buyers that some markets may heat up faster than others.
The year is new yet also seems to be opening up with a certain vigor that we will follow and report back on as 2025 unfolds.
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