A Home for the Holidays
This is a constant question within our market with buyers clamoring for new inventory to satisfy their requirements and fewer property owners deciding to become sellers.
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 380 single-family homes left for sale as November concluded – 24 percent fewer than this same period last year. Sellers delivered just 319 new listings to the market during the month – 44 percent less than in 2020 - and, if this trend continues, sales will have no choice but to fall as inventories continue to be depleted and options are drying up for purchasing. This November, buyers gained control of another 396 new deals – three percent off from a year earlier though due only to available inventory being down 50 percent. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 460 this last month – with all that is going on to consider that sales are seven percent greater than in 2020 is testament to the underlying strength of demand within our marketplace.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with vastly growing demands from buyers in our region along with extremely attractive interest rates driving our markets, the data shows MSI down to 0.8 as of last month – an all-time historical low reading showcasing buyers more than ever outnumbering sellers. This display of liquidity and activity is among the highest in the seven Bay Area counties we track and, in part, due to the native demands of households, unique to our region, who are still replacing the 6000 plus homes they lost in the Tubbs, Nuns, Kincade, Glass and Wallbridge Fire calamities.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 48 homes reported for sale as November ended – 50 percent less than this same period a year ago. This region experienced the addition of just 14 new listings during the period – 52 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 32 more properties. Sellers awarded keys to another 45 new homeowners thereby delivering a dramatically tighter MSI of 1.1.
Healdsburg witnessed 12 new listings arrive to the market last month – the fewest since last December. Buyers absorbed 21 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 25 transactions leaving this submarket with 53 homes for presentation to buyers in December, along with an MSI of 2.1.
Petaluma’s Westside only attracted four new sellers in November which caused available inventory to plummet to nine homes remaining for sale by month’s end. Buyers grabbed 23 new deals in the period while sellers closed out 22 purchases causing MSI to tighten further to 0.4 – that is less than a two-week supply of inventory.
Across town, Petaluma’s Eastside supply of inventory is still being measured in weeks not months. November wrapped up with merely 11 available homes for buyers to consider - inclusive of the 16 additional offerings unveiled during the period. Home shoppers placed 22 more dwellings into contract while sellers also completed 25 transactions. With less than a tw0-weeks supply of homes being available – MSI at 0.4 – continue to expect values to rise to encourage more sellers into the market.
Sebastopol sellers delivered just nine new listings in November - falling significantly short of demand as buyers captured another 21 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 24 more sales leaving just 20 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in December while highlighting an MSI now at 0.8.
The market is the tightest we have ever experienced when it comes to homes available for purchasing and this can lead to exacerbated swings in metrics due to a smaller volume of sales where statistics can be overly swayed by each individual sale – be ready for this and make sure you have a trusted advisor on your team to guarantee you get the best guidance for your situation.
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