Market Trends Showcase Slumbery Summers
We are witnessing a trend break from the last 70 years we have tracked this. Historically, the statistics have demonstrated in our region that the summer selling season is where the bulk of sales activity has come from during any given year, but since the pandemic our busiest months of the year have been February, March, April, May, September, and October. Time will tell if these historical trend lines are changing, or if this is just a function of extremely contracted inventory levels that we have experienced over these same four years?
Within the metropolis of Santa Rosa, according to BAREIS MLS, June’s data points to a marketplace entering its expected summer pause period revealing that 292 single-family homes remain for sale in the city and its environs – 35 percent greater than this same time last year and a solid bounce from where inventory levels have stood even though this level is still near all-time lows. Home seekers laid claim to 147 single-family homes during the past month – 12 percent more than last year at this same time - while the entire municipality introduced 128 new listings to the market during this period – 18 percent less than in 2023. The most recent period also found Seller’s handing over keys on another 136 completed sales – 17 percent behind the 163 dwellings that traded hands twelve months prior.
Santa Rosa recorded a Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) level of 2.1 – continuing to affirm that sellers are exerting more influence on the marketplace than buyers. MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Northeast Santa Rosa – the North Bay’s most active submarket - saw the introduction of 51 single-family homes in June – 10 percent fewer than this same period a year ago. The supply of homes was met with softening demand as there were 145 dwellings for house hunters to consider by months end – 27 percent more than during the same period last year. Buyers managed to absorb 57 homes into new contracts – 44 percent ahead of last year - with sellers receiving closing checks on another 48 properties – 14 percent less than in 2023 showcasing a stabilized MSI of 3.0. Keep in mind that in this sector some of the new listings posted are offerings for homes under construction, which adds some unrealistic bulk to what is actually available to purchase now, unlike most other sub-markets throughout the County.
Brisker than above, Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of listed properties rest at 49 when July opened – 36 percent more than just a year earlier. This submarket debuted 15 new listings in June – 38 percent behind last year’s figures - while buyers garnered accepted offers on 23 additional dwellings – 18 percent fewer than a year earlier. This coveted corner of the city experienced 24 formal transfers in the period resulting in MSI tightening once again to 2.0.
Oakmont, a sprawling active adult community with over 4,700 residents itself, has been experiencing exceptional demand from buyers and seeing sellers respond with greater offerings with 12 more making their debut in June. Buyers jumped in and grabbed 11 new deals while sellers closed out 18 more sales leaving this region with 26 available homes for buyers to pursue in July along with a stabilized MSI at 1.4.
Similarly to Oakmont, the Northwest Santa Rosa market is fervent with activity. In June, buyers advanced to control 41 more deals while leaving another 44 single-family homes available for sale at the beginning of July. Sellers committed 27 new offerings to the market in the period while 32 additional homes crossed the finish line allowing this regions MSI to remain at 1.4.
In a market where prices have been climbing steadily, Southwest Santa Rosa’s activity kept moving along as consumers placed 15 dwellings into contract during the period just as sellers handed over the keys to 14 newly minted homeowners leaving 28 dwellings for buyers to view in July and this market experiencing an MSI of 2.0.
Are our markets coming of age? Meaning, is there a level of affluence more abundant than prior decades that is being highlighted by the market behaviors we have been experiencing over the last four years? It is one theory as to why Summer seems to be more about experiences than purchases.
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