New listings, All-time low again

New Listings, All-Time Low…Again!

As we measure the market metrics some statistics remain standouts. For the 33rd month in a row, new listings for the month, on a year-over-year basis, continue to trend lower – failing to replenish the
volume of acquisitions being made by home seekers, even with the upward pressure on interest rates that continue to hold back a significant percentage of pent-up buyer demands.
Within the metropolis of Santa Rosa, according to BAREIS MLS, with autumn underway signaling more robust action than we encountered in July and August, the data from September points to a
marketplace firmly indicating a voracious demand with 251 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 12 percent greater than this same time a year ago. Buyers laid claim to 130 single- family homes during the past month – a rate 30 percent greater than last year - while the entire municipality introduced 111 new listings to the market in September – 25 percent fewer than in 2022.
The most recent period found Seller’s handing over keys on another 102 completed sales – 26 percent fewer than a year ago.

This measurable market shift remains affirmed by Santa Rosa recording a Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) level at 2.5 – further confirmation that buyers have ceded their control to sellers in the
marketplace while establishing yet another data point echoing the uptick in buyer demands being experienced on main street since the opening of the new year; and, now with October looking to
establish a tenth consecutive month.

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower
numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Within the city, Northeast Santa Rosa – the North Bay’s most active submarket - saw the introduction of 43 single-family homes in September – 19 percent fewer than this same period a year ago. The supply of homes was met with more active demand during the period as there were only 123 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end – 37 percent above the depths we were experiencing at this time last year. Buyers still managed to absorb 43 homes into new contracts with sellers receiving closing checks on another 36 properties – resulting in MSI staying in favor of sellers at 3.4 – keep in mind that in this sector some of the new listings posted are offerings for homes to be built yet so that adds some unrealistic bulk to what is really available to purchase now, unlike most other sub-markets throughout the County.

Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of listed properties rest at 42 by month’s end – 20 percent more than just a year earlier. This submarket debuted 18 new listings in September – 22 percent fewer than
last year - while buyers garnered accepted offers on another 25 additional dwellings. This coveted corner of the city experienced 22 formal transfers in the period culminating in an MSI of 1.9.
No market in the Northbay has been busier than Oakmont with voracious buyer demands coming from outside our marketplace from those looking to acquire their new wine country retirement home. As we close the books on September, there were just 14 available homes for buyers to peruse, which is inclusive of property owners launching just nine new offerings during the period. Buyers inked out 14 new deals while sellers completed 10 transactions during the month, allowing MSI to settle at 1.4. 

Northwest Santa Rosa buyers made advances to gain control of 36 more deals while leaving 47 single- family homes available for sale at the end of September. Sellers committed 33 additional offerings to
the market while another 23 homes completed the closing process leaving this region with an MSI at 2.0.

Southwest Santa Rosa sellers delivered merely eight new offerings to the market while consumers placed 12 more dwellings into contract during the period. Newly minted homeowners received keys to
their new doors on the heels of 11 closings, leaving 25 dwellings available for buyers to view in October while causing MSI to rise to 2.3 – still indicative of a seller-controlled marketplace.

The overall volume of transactions for the year is expected to be lower, again and, in fact, not since 2008 have we experienced this light of volume in closed sales. As the Federal Reserve finds a point at where it has to reverse policy over the next twelve months then we would expect more buyers to come into the market thereby fueling an uptick in prices that is only being abated by the rapid rise in the current interest rate environment we are living in.