As population bases shift to find communities that offer more spatial living and open spaces with greater proximity to outdoor leisure activities, we continue to see data points stack up with transactions being initiated by those moving away from the greater Bay Area. While all North Bay communities are being eyed by this move, Santa Rosa is surpassing them all in actual volume of interests.
The Santa Rosa metro region, like most places on earth, has been maneuvering to find its way to the other side of living with a virus and what that means to our habits and routines. According to BAREIS MLS, with June in the rearview mirror, we find the marketplace absorbing homes at a more rapid pace than ever recorded with 343 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – seven percent less than this same time a year ago – coupled with a voracious level of activity as 248 single-family homes found their way into pending contracts during the past month – further denoting a more “V” shaped recovery scenario, if not extensively more.
The entire municipality introduced 157 new listings to the market during the period – 22 percent fewer than in 2019 - while the most recent period also found Sellers handing over keys on 157 completed sales – essentially on par with the prior year and that’s with our markets only starting to become more widely available. These metrics showcase Santa Rosa with its’ Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) now at 2.2 – and with fewer sellers than there are buyers, hold on for this number to compress further. The change in velocity points to a market that is tightening up due to buyers demands and a lack of selling interest.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the underlying specifics, Northeast Santa Rosa saw the introduction of just 51 single-family homes in June – a 23 percent decrease from this same period a year ago. The supply of homes was met with over the top absorption during the period as there were only 155 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end. Buyers embarked on 108 newly initiated escrows – an all-time monthly high - while sellers received closing checks on another 54 properties, showcasing an MSI of 2.9 – and getting tighter.
Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of available properties steady at 53 by months end. This submarket debuted just 28 new homes in June – 10 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted deals on 37 more abodes – an astounding 61 percent more than the prior June. This coveted corner of the city experienced another 34 formal transfers – pressuring the market to tighten further with an MSI of 1.6 and sinking rapidly due to new demands from buyers that are coming form outside our typical market.
Oakmont is just beginning to awake and join the activity levels being seen across the five boroughs of our city. With this age portion of the general population being methodical and weary of the times they have stayed more in place than any other age group – though anticipate this to catch up. This 55+ retirement community witnessed 20 sellers debuting new offerings in the period - effectively allowing inventory to expand to 65 available homes by months end. Buyers found their way to acceptances on 17 new purchases while sellers concluded 15 transactions during the period – 50 percent greater than in 2019. The activity level indicates an MSI of 4.3 – with the expectation for this market to step into a similar cadence as the balance of Santa Rosa.
Northwest Santa Rosa’s marketplace was equally awash in buyer activity in June as well. Sellers delivered 37 new offerings – compared to 59 last year in the same period – while buyers came out and put contracts together on 64 more homes, on par with the prior monthly record. Sellers closed out the month with 38 sales, leaving this region with 47 available homes to roll into July while establishing an MSI of 1.2 with expectations of further compression next month.
Southwest Santa Rosa had 21 new properties make their way to market during the period with buyers promptly gaining control of 22 houses in new agreements - leaving this submarket with only 23 dwellings in play for July. Sellers completed 16 deals which sent the MSI tumbling to 1.4.
As the pace ensues with people choosing to shift their housing wants to outside of major metro markets we should expect there to be a fundamental change in the underlying metrics we are used to experiencing…Congratulations Santa Rosa – the rest of the world is rediscovering you!