Summer Demand Meets Winter Supplies

The theme in our region continues, more people want to live here than leave here.
 
The Santa Rosa metro region is working to accommodate the demands of the greater Bay Area along with its’ own, and according to BAREIS MLS - with July behind us - the data points to a marketplace still absorbing homes at higher than typical seasonal level with only 243 single-family homes remaining for sale in the city and its environs – 25 percent less than this same time a year ago. Exacerbated buyer activity has claimed another 251 single-family homes during the past month – that is still 12 percent ahead of last year’s robust pace.
 
The entire municipality introduced 177 new listings to the market over the last month while the most recent period also found Sellers handing over keys on 227 completed sales – five percent off last year’s mark and due precisely to the lack of inventory for buyers to acquire. With the lack of a credible supply, the statistics will be artificially hampered due to a significant portion of unsatiated demand going unmet each month as more homes continue to be absorbed while fewer sellers enter the “open” market. This compression is affirmed by Santa Rosa recording its’ Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) hovering around 1.1 – this is very much attributed to the fundamental shift in population migration from the greater Bay Area along with the cost of money in our current economy coupled with a lack of property owners interested in leaving the area.
 
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
 
Within the city, Northeast Santa Rosa saw the introduction of merely 51 single-family homes in July – equivalent to our December low’s. The supply of homes was met with enhanced demands during the period as there were only 87 dwellings for home seekers to consider by months end – 43 percent fewer than last year. Buyers still managed absorb 83 homes into contract while sellers received closing checks on another 83 properties - culminating in an MSI of 1.0, which is the all-time tightest reading for this submarket.
 
Similarly, Southeast Santa Rosa saw the supply of available properties rest at 45 by the end of last month – 14 percent less than a year earlier. This submarket debuted just 30 new homes in July while buyers garnered accepted offers on 37 additional dwellings. This coveted corner of the city experienced 41 formal transfers in the period thereby establishing an MSI of 1.1.
 
Oakmont – a hot market though not as sizzling as the balance of the five boroughs - witnessed 24 sellers entering that market in July while buyers inked out 31 new deals, 24 percent ahead of last year. Sellers concluded 27 transactions during the month leaving this niche market with 53 available homes to open with in August along with MSI at 2.0 – indicative of heavier buyer demand continuing to show up in this market as well now.
 
Northwest Santa Rosa saw buyers swoop in to gain control of 69 more deals this month – an all-time high - leaving just 40 available single-family homes for sale. Sellers committed a paltry 43 additional new offerings to the markets while another 62 homes completed the closing process. This intense activity is holding the MSI under a one-month now at 0.6.
 
Southwest sellers really came through in delivering 29 new offerings to the market this past month only to be bested by consumers snatching up 31 properties into new contracts. Newly minted homeowners captured keys on 14 closings, leaving just 18 homes available for buyers to peruse in while August establishing an MSI of 1.3 and falling.
 
Since new housing does not get constructed fast enough to meet demands we will find ourselves in a marketplace wrought with unsatiated buyers - at least until significantly more sellers are tempted to wade into the market.

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