The Great American Summer – Has it Run its’ Course?

The Great American Summer – Has it Run its’ Course?

Early indicators are, yes! What a summer though. Many chose to refill their emotional and relational tanks with much needed fuel as they made up for time - and life lost - after having endured the pandemic.

According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 765 single-family homes left for sale at July’s conclusion – 31 percent fewer than this same period last year. Sellers delivered 377 new listings to the market during the month – 40 percent less than in 2021 - while buyers gained control of another 343 new deals – 45 percent off from a year earlier due to “summering buyers”, higher interest rates and over a third less options for buyers to select from. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 353 this last month – 41 percent fewer than the prior year.

The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with the Federal Reserve aggressively trying to dampen demand by raising the cost of money MSI has risen from the depths to 2.2 as of last month. This display of liquidity and activity is still among the highest in the seven Bay Area counties we track and, in part, due to the native demands of households, unique to our region, who are still replacing the 6000 plus homes they lost in the Tubbs, Nuns, Kincade, Glass and Wallbridge Fire calamities.  

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 107 homes reported for sale as July ended – 28 percent less than this same period a year ago. This region experienced the addition of 48 new listings during the period – 10 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 37 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to another 33 new homeowners – 50 percent off a year earlier – allowing MSI to climb closer to a balance reading at 3.2.

Healdsburg witnessed just 14 new listings arrive to the market last month – 64 percent fewer than in 2021. Buyers absorbed 17 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 16 transactions leaving this submarket with 52 homes for presentation to buyers in August, along with an MSI of 3.3.

Petaluma’s Westside attracted 25 new sellers in July which allowed available inventory to begin the new month with 46 homes for buyers to select from. Home seekers grabbed just 14 new deals in the period while sellers closed out 28 purchases holding the MSI at 1.6 – with the expectation that this may rise significantly in the next month.

Sebastopol wrapped up July with 61 available homes for buyers to consider inclusive of the 23 additional offerings unveiled during the period. Home shoppers placed 22 more dwellings into contract while sellers completed 27 sales allowing MSI to climb to 2.3.

Windsor property owners delivered 17 new listings in July while buyers captured 14 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 18 more transactions leaving 44 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in August while highlighting an MSI moving up to 2.4.

We expect the data from the current month to be similar to what is reported above though with expectations to adjust once the data for September and October arrive. True professionals love markets that experience waves like this…because they are vastly experienced at how to make it work for their clients…become one now!