The Long and Winding Road…Home
With summer on the horizon and interest rates up, the winding road ahead could present some blind curves for both sellers and buyers in the marketplace.
According to BAREIS MLS, Sonoma County had exactly 421 single-family homes left for sale at April’s conclusion – 29 percent fewer than this same period last year. Sellers delivered just 350 new listings to the market during the month – 48 percent less than in 2021 - and, if this trend continues, sales will have no choice but to fall as inventories continue to be depleted and options are drying up for purchasing. This April, buyers gained control of another 444 new deals – 23 percent off from a year earlier though due only to available inventory being 30 percent off what it was last year at this time. In support of these metrics, completed sales tipped the scales at 448 this last month – 28 percent fewer than the prior year - due to the lack of more sellers not participating in the marketplace. This data reveals a marketplace still selling a greater percentage of available inventory than last year.
The continued pace of the markets can be measured by the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) and, with vastly growing demands from buyers in our region along with higher though still attractive interest rates driving our markets, the data shows MSI steadying at 0.9 as of last month. This display of liquidity and activity is among the highest in the seven Bay Area counties we track and, in part, due to the native demands of households, unique to our region, who are still replacing the 6000 plus homes they lost in the Tubbs, Nuns, Kincade, Glass and Wallbridge Fire calamities.
MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.
Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 75 homes reported for sale as April ended – 23 percent less than this same period a year ago. This region experienced the addition of 48 new listings during the period – 38 percent fewer than last year - while buyers garnered accepted contracts on 48 more properties. Sellers in the valley awarded keys to another 46 new homeowners – 34 percent off last year at this time - holding the MSI at 1.6.
Healdsburg witnessed just 23 new listings arrive to the market last month – 41 percent fewer than in 2021. Buyers absorbed 19 homes in new deals while sellers closed out another 18 transactions leaving this submarket with 54 homes for presentation to buyers in May, along with an MSI of 3.0.
Petaluma’s Westside attracted 13 new sellers in April which allowed available inventory to begin the new month with 16 homes for buyers to select from. Home seekers grabbed 32 new deals in the period while sellers closed out 34 purchases causing the MSI to tighten further to 0.5.
In West County, Sebastopol’s supply of inventory is still under siege. April wrapped up with 32 available homes for buyers to consider inclusive of the 20 additional offerings unveiled during the period. Home shoppers placed 21 more dwellings into contract while sellers completed 25 sales. With an MSI of 1.3 continue to see prices being pressured higher to encourage more sellers into the market.
Windsor property owners delivered just 13 new listings in April - falling significantly short of demand as buyers captured another 19 deals during the period. Sellers closed out 31 more transactions leaving 14 single-family homes available for buyers to peruse in May while highlighting an MSI now at 0.5.
Worldwide, Road Rally racers drive some of the most exciting and dangerous tracks and every driver relies heavily on their co-pilot to prompt them ahead of each obstacle so that they can arrive soonest and safely at the finish line…shouldn’t you have one too when entering the real estate marketplace as a buyer or seller?
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