Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

September Market Update: Supply Squeeze

September Market Update: Supply Squeeze

Fall 2026 North Bay Real Estate Market Update

Homes sold faster in September than they did a year ago in every single one of the 18 North Bay markets we track. That’s the headline from this month’s numbers, and it’s a big one heading into fall.

At the same time, fewer homes are hitting the market and fewer are closing. So the story right now isn’t a slowdown in demand. It’s a supply squeeze: buyers are out there and acting quickly, but there simply aren’t as many homes to choose from.

Here’s how September 2026 compared to September 2025 across Sonoma, Napa, Marin, Solano, and Mendocino counties.

Sonoma County

Sonoma County’s median sales price rose 9% to $875K, up from $803K last September, while the median listing price eased 2% to $964K. Days on market dropped 29% to 48, and active listings fell 9% to 1,334. Pending sales held steady at 334, and sold listings dipped 10% to 294.

Takeaway: Homes are selling about three weeks faster than last year and for meaningfully more money. Fewer closings mostly reflects fewer listings, not fewer buyers.

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa’s median sales price climbed 5% to $779K, while the median listing price slipped 2% to $833K. Days on market fell 27% to 46, and active listings dropped 7% to 495. Pending sales (123) and sold listings (117) both held close to last year’s pace, each down 2%.

Takeaway: Santa Rosa is steady and healthy. Well-priced homes are moving noticeably faster than last fall, and buyers still have some room to negotiate off list price.

Windsor

Windsor’s median listing price held flat at $849K, and the median sales price came in at $875K, essentially unchanged from last year. Days on market dropped 11% to 39, and active listings dipped 4% to 49. Pending sales fell to 7 from 17, and sold listings dropped to 9 from 16.

Takeaway: Homes in Windsor are still selling above the median list price, which tells you demand is there. The drop in pending sales is worth watching, since it points to a quieter October and November for closings.

Healdsburg

Healdsburg’s median listing price rose 14% to $2.00M, and the median sales price jumped 26% to $1.15M. Active listings climbed 12% to 109, while days on market eased 7% to 66. Pending sales dipped slightly to 15, and sold listings fell 19% to 13.

Takeaway: Healdsburg buyers have more homes to choose from than last year. The gap between list and sale prices suggests the higher-end listings are taking longer, while homes closer to $1M are where the action is.

Petaluma

Petaluma’s median sales price hit $1.00M, up 3% from $975K, while the median listing price dropped 7% to $925K. Active listings fell 23% to 93, and days on market dropped 37% to just 32. Pending sales slipped 12% to 38, and sold listings fell 22% to 32.

Takeaway: When the median sales price is higher than the median listing price, buyers are competing. Petaluma is one of the tightest, fastest markets in the North Bay right now.

Rohnert Park

Rohnert Park’s median listing price dipped 6% to $749K, and the median sales price slipped 2% to $741K. Active listings plunged 55% to just 37, and days on market fell 57% to 30, the fastest pace in Sonoma County this month. Pending sales dipped to 19, and sold listings fell to 14.

Takeaway: Inventory in Rohnert Park has been cut by more than half. If you’re a seller here, this is a great window. If you’re a buyer, be ready to move quickly.

Cloverdale

Cloverdale’s median listing price fell 18% to $659K, and the median sales price dropped 8% to $599K. Active listings rose 22% to 50, while days on market plummeted 72% to 37. Pending sales jumped 63% to 13.

Takeaway: Cloverdale is one of the most affordable spots in Sonoma County right now, and that jump in pending sales shows buyers have noticed.

Sebastopol

Sebastopol’s median sales price rose 15% to $1.25M, while the median listing price dipped 5% to $1.26M. Active listings rose 14% to 75, and days on market dropped 28% to 44. Pending sales jumped 59% to 27, and sold listings rose 22% to 22.

Takeaway: Sebastopol is one of the few markets where both closings and pending sales grew this month. Homes are selling almost right at list price, and momentum is building.

Sonoma Valley

Sonoma Valley’s median listing price dipped 5% to $1.60M, while the median sales price ticked up 2% to $1.27M. Active listings fell 11% to 196, and days on market dropped 37% to 54. Pending sales held even at 36, and sold listings dipped to 37.

Takeaway: Sonoma Valley is moving faster than last fall, but the spread between list and sale price means sellers still need to price realistically to attract buyers.

Russian River

The Russian River area saw its median listing price drop 7% to $575K, while the median sales price edged up 1% to $536K. Active listings rose slightly to 108, and days on market fell 39% to 56. Pending sales dipped to 27, and sold listings fell to 22.

Takeaway: Russian River remains the most accessible price point in Sonoma County, and homes are selling more than a month faster than last year.

Green Valley

Green Valley’s median listing price rose 22% to $1.09M, and the median sales price jumped 31% to $950K. Active listings fell 32% to 27, and days on market dropped 51% to 73. Pending sales doubled to 8, while sold listings fell to 5.

Takeaway: With only a handful of sales each month, Green Valley’s numbers can swing a lot. Still, tighter inventory and doubled pending sales point to rising interest in this small, special pocket.

Napa County & City of Napa

Napa County’s median sales price rose 10% to $1.03M, up from $945K, and the median listing price climbed 3% to $1.49M. Days on market fell 11% to 94, and active listings dipped 3% to 544. Pending sales slipped 6% to 65, and sold listings fell 29% to 50.

The City of Napa saw even stronger price growth. The median sales price jumped 17% to $1.05M, and the median listing price rose 12% to $1.40M. Days on market dropped 14% to 85, and active listings fell 9% to 330. Sold listings were down 35% to 36.

Takeaway: Prices are up solidly across Napa, but homes still take around three months to sell and there’s a wide gap between list and sale prices. Patient, well-prepared buyers can still find room to negotiate here.

St. Helena

St. Helena’s median listing price dropped 10% to $2.25M, while the median sales price came in at $3.31M, up from $1.32M last year. Days on market eased 9% to 164, and active listings held about even at 91. Pending sales rose to 11 from 7, and sold listings fell to 4.

Takeaway: With only four sales in September, that huge jump in median sales price reflects a few high-end closings rather than a citywide price shift. The more telling number is pending sales, up 57%, a sign that luxury buyers are getting back off the sidelines.

Solano County

Solano County’s median listing price held nearly flat at $594K, and the median sales price was essentially unchanged at $609K. Active listings fell 14% to 794, and days on market dropped 26% to 45. Pending sales dipped 5% to 196, and sold listings fell 20% to 175.

Takeaway: Solano prices are holding steady and homes are selling faster, with sales prices landing above the median list price. It’s a balanced, stable market for buyers and sellers alike.

Fairfield

Fairfield’s median listing price slipped 3% to $635K, and the median sales price dipped 4% to $620K. Active listings fell 15% to 178, and days on market dropped 30% to 53. Pending sales jumped 30% to 57, while sold listings fell 23% to 50.

Takeaway: Prices in Fairfield have softened a bit, and buyers are responding. That 30% jump in pending sales is one of the strongest leading indicators in the region this month.

Marin County

Marin County’s median listing price held nearly flat at $1.79M, and the median sales price dipped 2% to $1.70M. Active listings dropped 19% to 503, and days on market fell 21% to 30. Pending sales rose 15% to 202, and sold listings climbed 10% to 172.

Takeaway: Marin is the standout this month. It’s one of only two markets where closed sales went up, and with pending sales climbing too, demand looks strong heading into the holidays.

Mendocino County

Mendocino County’s median listing price rose 6% to $575K, and the median sales price ticked up 2% to $475K. Active listings dipped 7% to 407, and days on market fell 15% to 101. Pending sales slipped to 46, and sold listings dipped 10% to 43.

Takeaway: Mendocino continues to offer some of the most affordable prices in the North Bay, with steady values and homes selling a bit faster than last year.

What This Means for You

A few patterns stand out across the North Bay this month:

Homes are selling faster everywhere. Days on market dropped in all 18 markets we track. Cloverdale, Rohnert Park, and Green Valley all saw declines of 50% or more.

Inventory keeps tightening. Active listings fell in 13 of 18 markets, led by Rohnert Park (down 55%), Green Valley (down 32%), and Petaluma (down 23%). The exceptions, like Cloverdale, Sebastopol, and Healdsburg, are giving buyers a little more choice.

Fewer closings, but not fewer buyers. Sold listings were down in most markets, with Marin and Sebastopol as the only places that grew. With homes selling this quickly, that’s a sign there just aren’t enough of them to go around.

Prices are holding up. The median sales price rose in Sonoma County, Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Sebastopol, and Napa, even as some listing prices softened. Well-priced homes are getting full value.

If you want to talk through what this means for your street, your neighborhood, or your price point, we’d love to have that conversation. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious what your home is worth this fall, reach out anytime.

Data sourced from BAREIS MLS via Broker Metrics. All figures reflect single-family residences, September 2026 compared to September 2025. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Contact us for a personalized market analysis for your neighborhood.

Kelsey McCaffrey | The Schween Group at Compass
[email protected] | santarosafinehomes.com
DRE #02282238

Strategic Planning for Every Move

Whether buying, selling, or investing, Jeff & Tracey develop customized plans designed to align with both immediate needs and long-term financial goals.

Follow Us on Instagram