Fall 2026 Sonoma County Real Estate Market Update
If you've been wondering what's happening in the Sonoma County real estate market this fall, here's the short version: it's a balanced market, and pricing matters more than ever. Homes that are priced right are selling faster than they did a year ago, while sellers who aimed too high are making adjustments. Here's what the October numbers tell us, and what they mean for you if you're thinking about buying or selling in Santa Rosa or anywhere in Sonoma County.
The fall market at a glance
- Median sale price: The median single-family home in Sonoma County sold for $835,000 in October, up 1% from a year ago.
- Sales: 358 single-family homes closed, down 5% from last October but up 9% from September.
- Speed: Homes went under contract in 61 days on average, down from 71 days a year ago.
- Competition: 30% of homes sold above list price, and homes sold for about 99% of their original asking price on average.
- Inventory: There were 1,092 active single-family listings, 6% fewer than a year ago. That works out to about 3.1 months of supply.
- Price reductions: Sellers cut prices 312 times in October, up 34% from last year and the most of any month since at least 2020. About 40% of listings saw a reduction.
- Price per square foot: The countywide median landed at about $498 per square foot.
What does all that add up to? A market where buyers have choices and room to negotiate, but where a well-prepared, well-priced home still draws strong interest. Fewer homes on the market and faster sales are good news for sellers. More price cuts are a reminder that today's buyers are paying close attention to value.
Santa Rosa Housing Market: Fall 2026
Santa Rosa continues to be the heartbeat of the Sonoma County market. The city accounted for roughly a third of all home sales in the county in October and more than 1,500 sales over the past 12 months. The median single-family price in Santa Rosa was $730,000, up 2% from a year ago, at about $465 per square foot.
Most of Santa Rosa's activity is happening under $1 million, which is where the bulk of new and active listings sit. That makes Santa Rosa one of the more approachable places to buy in Sonoma County, especially compared with Healdsburg, Sonoma, and the coast. If you're a first-time buyer or looking to move up without leaving the county, Santa Rosa offers the most options.
Sonoma County home prices by community
Prices vary a lot depending on where you look. Here's how October's median single-family sale prices compared across the county.
Community | Median sale price (Oct 2026) | Change from last year |
|---|---|---|
Healdsburg | $1,545,000 | Down 3% |
Bodega Bay | $1,455,000 | Up 14% |
Sonoma | $1,275,000 | Up 19% |
Sebastopol | $1,125,000 | Down 5% |
The Sea Ranch | $1,125,000 | Down 9% |
Petaluma | $899,000 | Down 3% |
Windsor | $820,000 | Down 3% |
Rohnert Park | $772,500 | Up 10% |
Santa Rosa | $730,000 | Up 2% |
Cloverdale | $565,000 | Down 10% |
Guerneville | $536,000 | Down 8% |
A quick note: monthly medians in smaller communities can swing a lot with just a handful of sales, so these are best read as a snapshot. If you want to know what's really happening on your street, a custom home value report will tell you much more.
Condos
The Sonoma County condo market softened this fall. Only 19 condos closed countywide in October, with a median price of $450,000. Supply climbed to 6.4 months and 41% of condo listings took a price cut. With so few sales, these numbers can move quickly, but right now condo buyers have real negotiating power.
What This Means If You're Selling in Sonoma County
The biggest takeaway for sellers this fall is simple: price it right from day one. With 40% of listings taking a price cut, buyers can tell when a home is overpriced, and they're willing to wait. The good news is that well-priced homes are selling faster than last year, and nearly a third are still getting offers over asking.
- Start with an accurate price. A home priced well from the start usually sells faster and for more than one that chases the market down.
- Presentation matters. In a balanced market, homes that look their best stand out from the crowd.
- Think about timing. Fewer homes hit the market in late fall and winter, which can mean less competition for you.
- Consider a private, off-market launch. About a third of our team's sales happen off market. Many of our spring sellers quietly market their homes as Compass Private Exclusives through the fall and winter, sharing them with a network of agents we've built over 30+ years.
Curious what your home could sell for right now? Request a free home value report and we'll give you a real number based on today's market, not an online estimate.
What This Means If You're Buying in Sonoma County
Fall is a great time to be a buyer in Sonoma County. You have more choices than you did during the frenzy of recent years, sellers are more open to negotiating, and price reductions are at their highest level since at least 2020.
- You have leverage. More price cuts and 3.1 months of supply mean you can often ask for repairs, credits, or a better price.
- The best homes still move. Well-priced homes in great neighborhoods are selling faster than last year, so be ready to act when the right one comes along.
- Get pre-approved early. Rates have been bouncing around, and a solid pre-approval puts you in a stronger position.
- Look beyond the MLS. Some of the best homes never show up on public sites. We can help you see Compass Private Exclusives and Coming Soon listings before they hit the open market.
Ready to start looking? Search Santa Rosa and Sonoma County homes for sale or reach out and we'll set up a custom search for you.
The Bigger Picture: Mortgage Rates and the Bay Area
Mortgage rates were near 7.5% in early fall, which cooled buyer demand across the country. Pending home sales in October were about 15% below last year, and Northern California is tracking close to national trends. There was a bit of good news late in the month: rates dropped nearly 0.4 percentage points. With inflation still above the Fed's target, though, there's no guarantee lower rates will stick around.
Across Northern California, markets split almost evenly this fall. San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo tightened up, while Sacramento and Santa Clara softened. Sonoma County landed right in the middle: inventory is lower than last year, but sellers are cutting prices more often. Nationally, home prices are up about 2% from last year and foreclosures remain near historic lows, so the overall foundation of the housing market is still solid.
What to Expect This Winter
The fall listing wave is winding down. New single-family listings in Sonoma County dropped 25% from September, and months of supply fell from 3.5 to 3.1. Heading into the holidays, we expect fewer new homes to come on the market, which could help well-priced listings stand out. For buyers, the winter months often bring motivated sellers and less competition. For sellers planning a spring move, now is the perfect time to start preparing.
Let's Talk About Your Next Move
Every neighborhood and every home tells its own story, and countywide numbers only go so far. Whether you're thinking about selling this winter, planning a spring listing, or getting ready to buy, we'd love to help you make sense of what this market means for you.
The Schween Group at Compass is a father-daughter team serving Santa Rosa and Sonoma County, ranked in the top 1.5% of agents nationally by RealTrends Verified 2026. We've helped clients with more than 1,180 sales in Santa Rosa, and much of our business comes from referrals from past clients.
- Get your free home value report
- Search homes for sale in Santa Rosa and Sonoma County
- Learn about Compass Private Exclusives
- Call or text Kelsey McCaffrey at 707-492-0551
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Sonoma County right now? Sonoma County is a balanced market this fall. There are about 3.1 months of supply, homes are selling faster than last year, and price reductions are more common. Well-priced homes still sell quickly, while buyers have more room to negotiate on homes that are overpriced.
What is the median home price in Sonoma County? The median single-family home sold for $835,000 in October 2026, up 1% from a year ago.
What is the median home price in Santa Rosa? The median single-family home in Santa Rosa sold for $730,000 in October 2026, up 2% from a year ago.
How long does it take to sell a home in Sonoma County? Homes took 61 days on average to go under contract in October, down from 71 days a year ago.
Is fall or winter a good time to sell a home in Santa Rosa? It can be. Fewer homes come on the market during the holidays, so a well-priced, well-presented home faces less competition. Sellers planning for spring can also start with a private, off-market launch.
Source: Compass via MLS, Sonoma County single-family homes and condos, data through October 31, 2026. October figures are preliminary and may change as late sales are reported. All numbers are approximate.
Kelsey McCaffrey, REALTOR, DRE 02282238, The Schween Group at Compass
